This is What “Always” Happens Before a Market Crash
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TOP 10 FRED charts for everybody
Pump and Dump FED scheme
US Economic leading Indicators
⚡️The United States has crossed into irreversible fiscal dominance.
The debt trajectory is now the primary policy constraint for the United States.
Everything else is downstream.
WHAT THIS ACTUALLY MEANS
1. The U.S. is never going back to a normal rate regime.
The math forbids it.
https://x.com/_the_prophet__/status/1989206479950475362
SightBringer
@_The_Prophet__
With interest expense above $1.2T:
•raising rates becomes impossible
•QT becomes impossible
•fiscal tightening becomes impossible
The debt service cost itself is now the hard boundary.
2. You cannot shrink the debt burden.
You can only dilute it.
Every sovereign that reached this stage chose the same path:
•real rates negative
•nominal GDP high
•inflation tolerated
•currency slowly weakened (not collapsed)
•asset markets supported
This is how you manage an overgrown balance sheet without triggering a depression.
3. The U.S. will never default - but it will inflate.
Not runaway inflation.
Just consistent, low-grade, deliberate erosion of real liabilities.
This is already happening.
The bond market already knows.
4. The Fed is no longer the true center of the system - the Treasury curve is.
Monetary power shifts to fiscal when:
•interest expense > defense
•interest expense > social programs
•interest expense > discretionary spending
This means the Fed becomes a maintenance mechanism for the debt structure.
5. The sovereign balance sheet is now the main battlefield.
This forces:
•yield curve control in some form
•persistent liquidity
•engineered asset stability
•coordination between Fed + Treasury
These are no longer policy choices, they are necessities.
THE PART NO ONE SAYS OUT LOUD
When you hit this part of the curve, the question is no longer:
•“Is this sustainable?”
•“Can the U.S. keep doing this?” ...
The question becomes:
•How much artificial stability is required to keep the system coherent?
Because the system must be coherent.
The U.S. cannot allow disorderly volatility in the Treasury market.
This is the real game:
•maintain order
•maintain liquidity
•maintain the illusion of optionality
•avoid forcing the public to see the operational constraints
THE FINAL LAYER
Here is the most stripped-down, mask-off truth:
The U.S. is too indebted to use restrictive policy and too systemically important to allow disorder. So the only path left is permanent, quiet financial repression.
That’s what the line means.
That’s the whole story.
Deficit Nation | Signal or Noise Ep 52 | Charlie Bilello | Peter Mallouk
https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1989094379038908688
DeepSeek Moment
DeepSeek sparks AI stock selloff; Nvidia posts record market-cap loss
https://x.com/karpathy/status/1990116666194456651
https://x.com/DavidGrudl/status/1990139485045117271
Specifications: The missing link to making the development of LLM systems an engineering discipline
https://arxiv.org/html/2412.05299v2
So how do you avoid galaxy braining yourself?
There are lots of different things you can do, but I will focus on two:
Have principles
Have hard rules of what you're not willing to do - don't kill innocent people, don't steal, don't defraud, respect people's personal freedom - and have a very high bar for considering any exceptions ...
https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2025/11/07/galaxybrain.html
Philosophers generally call this deontological ethics. Deontological ethics confuses many people - surely, if your rules have some underlying reason behind them, you should just go straight to pursuing that underlying reason. If "don't steal" is a rule because stealing usually hurts the victim more than it benefits you, then you should just follow the rule of not doing things that hurt the victim more than they benefit you. If sometimes stealing benefits you more than it hurts the victim - then steal!
https://x.com/karpathy/status/1990494327936885192
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